In a surprising turn of events, a new poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among members of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. Despite the union's historical ties to the Democratic Party, Trump's populist message continues to resonate with its membership. According to the survey released on September 23, Trump garners nearly 60% of the union's support, while Harris trails significantly with just 34%. This comes as the union's leadership refrains from endorsing any candidate in the 2024 presidential race, a decision that may reflect deeper internal divisions within the labor movement.
The Teamsters’ decision to stay neutral marks a stark contrast from previous elections, where union endorsements typically leaned heavily Democratic. In this case, the union's leadership, led by General President Sean O’Brien, has chosen to remain silent, stating that the union’s official stance will hinge on further consultations with its rank-and-file members. However, many of those members have already made up their minds, with Trump’s economic populism appealing to blue-collar workers in key battleground states. This polling shift is significant, as it comes at a time when labor support for Democrats is seen as weakening across the board.
BREAKING: In-person voting is officially underway in Virginia, and it looks like Trump-supporting patriots have flooded the polls. Meanwhile, there's ZERO Democrat enthusiasm
If Trump wins Virginia. He wins everything
A new poll shows that the race is a statistical tie. If… pic.twitter.com/3HCK5DSWwU
— George (@BehizyTweets) September 20, 2024
The union’s neutrality is reflective of a broader dissatisfaction with the current administration’s handling of economic issues. Biden's decision not to seek re-election placed Harris at the forefront of the Democratic ticket. However, Harris has struggled to connect with working-class voters, especially in the Midwest, where Teamsters members have voiced concerns about her ability to address key issues like inflation, trade, and manufacturing job losses. These concerns are reminiscent of Trump's successful 2016 campaign, where his populist rhetoric appealed to workers who felt left behind by globalization and foreign trade deals.
Trump’s success with Teamsters members is not just confined to this latest poll. His influence is particularly strong in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where labor unions have historically played a pivotal role in election outcomes. These states, with their sizable union populations, could be critical in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. Trump’s message of "America First" has struck a chord with many union workers who feel that Democratic policies, especially on energy and trade, have hurt American industries.
CNN Senior Data Reporter shows a map of what the electoral college would look like if the polls were off to the same degree they were in 2020.
The result: 312 electoral votes for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/oVBLfpfqc1
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) September 20, 2024
On the other hand, Harris has found it difficult to galvanize union support, despite efforts to engage with labor leaders and expand outreach to working-class voters. Her campaign has focused on building relationships with union officials, yet this has not translated into broad support among union members themselves. Many rank-and-file workers are skeptical of the Biden-Harris administration’s policies, particularly on issues such as energy transition and climate change, which some workers fear could lead to further job losses in the manufacturing and energy sectors.
Trump’s lead among union members is indicative of a larger trend within the labor movement. Many workers, particularly in industrial sectors, have expressed frustration with Democratic leadership, feeling that their economic concerns have been ignored. Trump's rhetoric about revitalizing American manufacturing and reversing trade deals that he argues have shipped jobs overseas has resonated strongly with these voters. The former president's ability to connect with working-class concerns has been a consistent factor in his political success, both in 2016 and 2020, and now again as he campaigns for 2024.
The Teamsters' decision to stay neutral could have significant ramifications for both campaigns. With Trump already commanding substantial support from union members, a lack of formal endorsement from the union could weaken Harris's ability to rally the working-class vote. For Democrats, the labor vote has traditionally been a key component of their electoral strategy, particularly in Midwestern states where union turnout can be decisive. Without the backing of influential unions like the Teamsters, Harris faces an uphill battle in states where the blue-collar vote is critical to a Democratic victory.
As the race heats up, both Trump and Harris are vying for the labor vote. Harris is betting on strong support from urban and suburban voters to counterbalance her weak performance among union members, while Trump continues to focus on winning over blue-collar workers by emphasizing his commitment to American jobs and economic security. The outcome of this battle for the labor vote could have far-reaching implications for the 2024 election, especially in states where unions still hold significant sway.
